cyberneticlibrary

Run backtesting analysis

backtestcommandsetup L21
callancapitolo17/NFLWork
What it does

run R backtests for sports betting models on date ranges

Best for

Validating sports betting edge with historical backtests before live wagering.

Inputs
  • · sport (cbb, nfl)
  • · date range
  • · market types
  • · Kelly fraction
Outputs
  • · ROI, CLV, hit rate, drawdown by market and book
Requires
  • · R
  • · R scripts in CBB/NFL folders
  • · historical bet data
Preconditions
  • · R installed
  • · CBB_Backtest.R or NFL Backtest.R exists
  • · bet data CSV available
Failure modes
  • · insufficient sample size (<500 bets)
  • · outdated price data
  • · book-specific data missing
  • · confidence intervals not calculated
Trust signals
  • · specifies minimum 500-bet sample for trust
  • · reports CLV alongside ROI
  • · calculates confidence intervals, not just point estimates