cyberneticlibrary

Predict sprint risks from historical signals

risk-predictcommandsetup L140
gonzalezpazmonica/pm-workspace
What it does

Predict sprint completion probability using burndown, WIP, and historical patterns

Best for

Surfacing sprint risk to the team early so they can replan instead of missing deadline

Inputs
  • · [object Object]
  • · [object Object]
  • · [object Object]
Outputs
  • · [object Object]
  • · [object Object]
  • · [object Object]
Requires
  • · Asana/Jira API
  • · git history
  • · burndown data source
Preconditions

3+ historical sprints of data; current sprint active

Failure modes
  • · Insufficient historical data (<3 sprints) → refuse prediction
  • · Scope creep not tracked → overestimate risk
  • · Stale item status → false alarms
Trust signals
  • · Never blames people, only signals
  • · Requires 3+ sprints for confidence
  • · Cites specific burndown deviation metrics