cyberneticlibrary

Decide under uncertainty

decision-makingskillsetup L164
Tibsfox/gsd-skill-creator
What it does

Make decisions under uncertainty using frameworks

Best for

Making high-stakes decisions with clear reasoning that can be audited or revisited

Inputs
  • · decision options
  • · criteria
  • · uncertainty factors
  • · time constraint
Outputs
  • · decision with rationale
  • · contingency plan
  • · monitoring metrics
Preconditions
  • · at least 2 options to choose from
  • · can articulate decision criteria
Failure modes
  • · Delaying decision indefinitely (analysis paralysis)
  • · Changing criteria after deciding
  • · Not revisiting reversible decisions
Trust signals
  • · Reversible vs irreversible decision distinction
  • · Expected value framework
  • · Scenario planning
  • · Regret minimization
  • · Time-box to decide